A new report from Israel’s N12 reveals that negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a potential hostage deal have reached a deadlock. Despite continued mediation efforts by Qatar and Egypt, talks have stalled as Hamas firmly rejects Israel’s key demands—namely disarmament, the exile of senior leadership, and surrendering control of Gaza.

Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi told Al Jazeera that the group is demanding a full ceasefire backed by written guarantees from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. He dismissed Israel’s conditions as “delusional,” insisting that disarmament would only be possible under the framework of a future Palestinian state.

According to the report, decision-making within Hamas has increasingly shifted to its military leadership inside Gaza, sidelining its political bureau in Doha and significantly reducing Qatar’s influence over the group. While Qatar continues to serve as a mediator, it has declined to pressure Hamas or expel its leaders. At the same time, Al Jazeera, which is based in Doha, continues to amplify Hamas’s narrative.

Egypt, once a pivotal player in negotiations, has also seen its influence wane. With the Israel Defense Forces now controlling the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing largely out of commission, Cairo’s leverage over Hamas has all but collapsed.

The report concludes that the United States—particularly the administration of former President Trump—is now seen as the only power capable of breaking the impasse. With its ability to influence Israel and coordinate with key regional actors, Washington may hold the decisive role in moving a hostage deal forward.