Under the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2026 National Defense Strategy, Russia is described as a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern flank for the foreseeable future. The strategy states that the Pentagon will ensure U.S. forces remain prepared to defend the U.S. homeland from Russian threats, while continuing to play a vital—though recalibrated—role within NATO.

The document argues that Russia is not capable of pursuing European hegemony, noting that European NATO members vastly exceed Moscow in economic strength, population, and potential military power. While the United States will remain engaged in Europe, the strategy emphasizes prioritizing homeland defense and deterring China.

It highlights that NATO allies, particularly under President Trump’s leadership, have committed to increasing defense spending to a new benchmark of 5% of GDP, including 3.5% for core military capabilities. As a result, European allies are expected to assume primary responsibility for conventional defense in Europe, including leading support for Ukraine, with the United States providing more limited but critical support.